Japanese investors are buying the
most South African rand bonds in more than two years and pumping
yen into Brazilian real funds, seeking higher yields even as
Europe’s debt crisis increases emerging-market currency swings.
Sales of rand uridashi bonds, which are marketed mainly to
the Japanese, climbed 32 percent to 4.1 billion rand ($521
million) in October, the most since February 2009. Inflows
helped boost assets at mutual funds invested in the real by $689
million since Oct. 1, double their declines in September,
according to Barclays Capital.
The highest volatility in emerging-market currencies since
2009 has failed to quell the appetite of Japanese investors for
overseas debt as their own government’s two-year bonds offer
yields of 0.14 percent, compared with 5.8 percent in South
Africa and almost 11 percent in Brazil. Foreign-asset buying and
Bank of Japan intervention helped weaken the yen against all 25
emerging currencies tracked by Bloomberg this quarter.
“I’ve been putting my surplus money into higher-yielding
overseas bonds as I can’t earn anything with Japan’s low
interest rates,” said Masamichi Nomura, a 57-year-old retiree
who owns Argentine and South African sovereign debt. “I don’t
care much about the foreign-exchange rate as my investment is
for the long-term.”
New Funds
The Bank of Japan has maintained its benchmark overnight
rate between zero and 0.1 percent since October 2010 to support
the economy, compared with 11.5 percent in Brazil, 5.5 percent
in South Africa and 5.75 percent in Turkey. Japan’s economy may
contract 0.5 percent in 2011 before expanding 2.3 percent in
2012, according to September estimates by the International
Monetary Fund. Developing nations will expand 6.4 percent this
year and 6.1 percent in 2012, according to the IMF.
Investors in Asia’s second-largest economy bought a net
1.06 trillion yen ($13.6 billion) in overseas bonds and notes
during the week ended Oct. 28, according to data released by the
Ministry of Finance in Tokyo. That was the third weekly net
purchase and the biggest amount since the period ended Sept. 23.
At least 24 new yen funds investing in developing-nation
debt are due to start in the five months ending Nov. 30, already
more than the 22 sold in the first half, data compiled by
Bloomberg show. Daiwa Asset Management Co., which oversees $119
billion of assets, will sell Indian and Indonesian bond funds on
Nov. 16, the data show.
“Concern about further strength in the yen eased a bit and
the yen may stabilize or weaken slightly from here,” Daisuke Kubo, the head of the bond-management department at Daiwa Asset
Management, said in an interview in Tokyo on Nov. 2. “Indonesia
and India have great potential due to strong domestic demand.”
Money-Losing Game
For the Japanese, investing in overseas bonds has been
unprofitable this year as the European debt crisis and the
global economic slowdown prompted investors to dump assets from
Brazil to South Africa in exchange for the yen, a traditional
safe-haven. The currency surged to 75.35 per dollar on Oct. 31,
prompting Japanese Minister of Finance Jun Azumi to order
intervention to weaken the exchange rate.
Local-currency government debt of developing nations lost
1.9 percent this year in yen terms, heading for their first
annual decline in three, according to JPMorgan Chase amp; Co.’s
GBI-EM Broad Index. South African and Turkish debt lost about 14
percent, as the rand fell 19 percent against Japan’s currency,
and the lira declined 15 percent. Japanese sovereign debt
returned 1.9 percent since Dec. 31, according to data compiled
by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
‘Huge Risk’
In the currency market, investors are expecting wider price
swings. Implied volatility among emerging-market currency
options, which measure investors’ expectations for foreign-
exchange fluctuations, jumped to 19 percent on Sept. 22, the
highest level since April 2009, according to data compiled by
JPMorgan. It was at 15 percent yesterday.
“It’s a huge risk,” said Stephen Jen, the managing
partner at SLJ Macro Partners LLP in London and a former head of
the global currency strategy team at Morgan Stanley, in a
telephone interview. “If we are right that the global economy
will decelerate in the months ahead, emerging markets will have
a problem. Fire exits are very narrow.”
Returns for yen investors, including interest income, may
be at least 15 percent on the Argentine peso, the Polish Zloty,
the lira, the rupee, the rand and Hungarian forint by the end of
next year, Bloomberg analyst surveys show. The potential returns
are based on the analysts’ forecast for the currencies and the
interests earned on local deposits during the period.
The real advanced 9.7 percent against the yen this quarter,
the South Korean won climbed 7.7 percent and the rand 4.1
percent. The Brazilian and South African currencies lost 20
percent in the third quarter.
‘Quite Solid’
“Retail investors’ risk appetite is still weak after they
saw some losses in Brazil,” said Kazuya Sugiura, the Tokyo-
based president of PineBridge Investments Japan Co., manager of
the biggest emerging-market debt fund not dedicated to a
specific currency. “But if you look at the long-term
perspective, demand for Brazil funds will be quite solid.”
The Japanese started to boost their investments abroad in
early 2000 after the housing-market crash in the 1990s sank the
economy into stagnation and deflation. Mutual funds increased
holdings of foreign assets, including stocks and bonds, to 42
trillion yen last year, or 48 percent of total assets, from less
than 10 trillion yen in 2000, according to a presentation by
Nomura Holdings Inc., the largest brokerage firm in Japan, in
September. They still had $10 trillion in yen-denominated cash
deposits in 2010, according to Nomura.
Sound Credits
“Japanese retail investors have lived in a low interest-
rate environment for over 15 years and are looking for yield on
their investment,” said Joakim Holmstrom, the head of funding
at Helsinki-based Municipality Finance Plc, which has sold 293
million rand of uridashi notes in three separate issues this
month. “They are happy to take the currency exposure but don’t
want to combine this with credit risk. Issuers like ourselves
are sought after as we represent a sound AAA credit.”
Municipality Finance’s 58 million rand of three-year notes
pay interest of 5.3 percent, compared with 0.2 percent for
Japanese government debt of similar maturity.
Japan’s central bank will keep its benchmark rate unchanged
until at least the end of third quarter of 2013, according to 13
of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg last month. Finance
Minister Azumi said on Oct. 31 he would keep intervening to curb
gains in the yen until he was “satisfied.”
“People here face almost zero percent interest on their
ordinary deposits and so, there is quite a strong demand for
higher-yielding assets,” said Masatsugu Yamamoto, senior
portfolio manager of the global fixed-income group at DIAM Co.
in Tokyo, which has about $123 billion of assets under
management. With currency intervention stabilizing the yen, it
is “a good environment for Japanese investors to buy emerging-
market assets,” Yamamoto said.
To contact the reporters on this story:
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yteso1@bloomberg.net;
Robert Brand in Cape Town at
rbrand9@bloomberg.net;
Ye Xie in New York at
yxie6@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Sandy Hendry at
shendry@bloomberg.net;
Gavin Serkin at
gserkin@bloomberg.net;
Dave Liedtka at +1-212-617-8988 or
dliedtka@bloomberg.net