MONEY MARKETS-Spanish downgrade not seen hitting US debt market, yet
Tuesday, May 1st, 2012
(Adds strategists quotes, releads story)
* SP cuts 11 Spanish banks, threatens five more
* Further Spanish sovereign cuts seen hitting markets
By Chris Reese and Kirsten Donovan
NEW YORK/LONDON, April 30 (Reuters) – The Standard Poors
credit downgrade of Spain last week should have little immediate
impact on US money markets, although further downgrades co uld
pressure investors to sell Spanish debt, a JP Morgan
Securities strategist said on Monday.
Following its downgrade of Spains rating by two notches
last week, ratings agency SP on Monday downgraded 11 Spanish
banks and warned a further five that their ratings could also be
cut.
The downgrade of Spains sovereign debt was expected to have
no direct impact on US funding markets as the large Spanish
banks have been inactive in the US money markets for nearly a
year, said Alexander Roever, short-term fixed income strategist
at JP Morgan Securities in New York.
Roever cautioned, however, that any further downgrades could
damage Spains ability to sell debt and impact markets globally.
Any more downgrades that would lead Spain to fall into the
sub-investment grade category would have large implications for
the markets as it will re sult in Spain being excluded from some
bond indices and thereby force passive asset managers to sell,
R oever said.
Spanish banks continued to load up on government bonds in
March, data from the European Central Bank data showed on
Monday, tying the banks ever closer to their indebted sovereign
and raising questions over who will support the government when
cheap central bank funding is exhausted.
The value of Spanish banks holdings of sovereign bonds rose
almost 18 billion euros in March to over 260 billion euros. That
is up around 85 billion euros in total since the end of November
as institutions invested cheap funds from the European Central
Banks two three-year liquidity operations, the long-term
refinancing operations known as LTROs.
Much of the rise is widely believed to be domestic banks
buying their own countrys sovereign bonds, with some of the
increase accounted for by changes in market value of the paper.
Spanish government bonds have sold off sharply in April on
growing concerns about the countrys ability to meet fiscal
targets and its leveraged banking sector.
If Spanish banks continued to be net buyers of the paper in
April, it would indicate that selling by international investors
was picking up pace.
The domestic banks stepped in to bridge the gap which was
left by a fairly sizeable exodus of non-residential bondholders,
which is why the LTRO magic has worn off so quickly, said
Richard McGuire, senior fixed income strategist at Rabobank in
London.
Spain sank into recession in the first quarter, data showed
on Monday.
And on Friday a government source said banks, rather than
the government, would assume the cost of any unprovisioned
losses on real estate assets after they are moved into a special
holding company.
Were still focusing on early cycle losses such as the real
estate loans which come to light quite quickly in a downturn,
McGuire said.
But theres later cycle losses that weve yet to dive into
such as corporate loans as the country returns to recession.
Still, with Spain and other European countries like Italy
and Greece on shaky financial ground, the situation remained
precarious for Europe as a whole.
Even though the LTROs have helped to stabilize Europes
banks and the global interbank markets, they did not fix the
underlying fiscal and political issues, Roever said.
By swapping cash for collateral, the ECB fed the global
liquidity glut that has too much cash chasing too few assets,
he added. If peripheral sovereign markets continue to
deteriorate and political solutions are not reached, palliative
central bank responses like further bond purchases or another
LTRO eventually could be forthcoming, further feeding the
liquidity glut.
(Editing by Leslie Adler)
